Sony Open picks 2026: This Englishman will open the season with a win in Hawaii
On one hand, no Kapalua last week left a hole in our heart. On the other hand, it saved us some extra coin from a gambling perspective, which we can now use for the Sony Open, the official opening event of the 2026 PGA Tour season. We are so, so back.
The 2026 gambling on golf journey starts now, and a few of our experts believe an Englishman will get us off on the right foot at 35-1 odds in Hawaii. Would not be a bad way to start, though longshots always have a say at the Sony Open.
The Golf Digest betting panel is comprised of a tour coach reporting anonymously from the grounds of Waialae, Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Andy Lack of the Inside Sports Network, Ryan Noonan of Betsperts, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line.
Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2026 Sony Open:
Sony Open picks 2026: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Anonymous Swing Coach of the Week: Hideki Matsuyama (18-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — We know Hideki loves Hawaii with wins at Kapalua and Waialae, so I love that he’s not the favorite here. Especially coming off the victory at the Hero. He’ll carry that momentum into another trophy in Hawaii.
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Aaron Rai (35-1, BetRivers) — If you’re trying to find the perfect combo of accuracy, irons, putting, and course comp success, you’re going to be spending up for Russell Henley. If you’re good with taking three of the four and praying for a respectable putting week at four times the odds, Rai’s your guy. Winner at the Wyndham in 2024 and recently a champion at the first stage of the DP World Tour playoffs in Abu Dhabi, Rai’s up to 23rd in the world rankings, and sits fourth in this field in driving accuracy, seventh in approach, and 19th in comp course performance. I like Rai so much he’s going to be my pick the first week in the MASSIVE One and Done contests for 2026. Still time to get in too!
Keith Stewart, PGA, Read The Line: Chris Kirk (45-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — Here’s the veteran play. Chris Kirk has won in Hawaii (The Sentry) and has two top-three finishes at Waialae over the past five years. A smooth right-to-left ball flight off the tee puts Kirk in a strong position to go low. An excellent approach player with his scoring irons, Chris has a couple of career wins on coastal Bermudagrass.
Ryan Noonan, Content Manager 4for4/Betsperts: Russell Henley (11-1, BetMGM) — Henley won here back in 2013, his first time at Waialae, and he’s finished T-11 or better in four of the past five years, including 2022, when he was tracked down late on Sunday by Hideki Matsuyama. What Henley excels at is rewarded at Waialae. He can control his golf ball off the tee, and he’s an outstanding wedge/short iron player. Henley also possesses an elite short game, particularly on Bermudagrass, where he’s gained an average of 0.55 strokes putting per round over the past three seasons.
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest managing editor: Aaron Rai (35-1, BetRivers) — I love backing Aaron Rai on a shorter, positional course—after cashing a ticket on his miraculous win at the Wyndham two years ago. Rai is third in this field in driving accuracy since July and second in SG/approach. He was playing better at the end of the year, lighting up the irons like he does. He’ll be a first-round leader bet, and just like many others, as it looks like this line is on the move down, I’m backing Rai to get another PGA Tour win.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Chris Kirk (45-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — It feels like Groundhog Day, because I always bet Kirk this time of year. He’s a true Hawaii merchant, and I mean that as a compliment. He had a really nice finish to the season in 2025, let’s see if he can carry that over to Sony.
Andy Lack, Inside Sports Network: Corey Conners (33-1, BetMGM) — I have long thought that Waialae is an ideal fit for Corey Conners’ skill set, and he ended the 2025 campaign on a high note with a great approach performance at the Hero World Challenge. The Canadian also has four top 12 finishes to his name in seven appearances at Waialae.
Past results: We posted 13 individual victories in 2025 after our tour coach hit his SEVENTH outright winner with Ben Griffin at 14-1 at the World Wide Technology Championship.
Sony Open picks 2026: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Tour coach: Bud Cauley (125-1, BetRivers) — These feel like crazy good odds for someone who I picked a decent amount at the end of last year. He doesn’t hit it far but loves these shorter tracks. You have to imagine he’ll want to carry over his comeback story with another strong start.
Mayo: Daniel Berger (66-1, BetMGM) — Berger started 2025 HOT, with multiple top three finishes and top 25s in nine of his first 12 starts, including the Masters, Players and signature events. Over Berger’s final 10 starts, he failed to finish inside the top 30 in any event, possibly explained away by a finger injury. But it’s clear what the problem was: chipping. Berger remained one of the most accurate players off the tee and his irons were solid, but he started losing almost a stroke PER ROUND around the greens. This from a player who hadn’t finished a season in the negatives since 2018. Clearly something mental. Berger’s won at comp course Pebble and Colonial already in his career, so this is a very reasonable price on a high-end player who may have gotten his act together over the break.
Stewart: Johnny Keefer (70-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — I walked with John Keefer at the RSM Classic. A sweet draw off the tee, and an excellent putter give me every indication that this rookie can continue with his excellent scoring ways. Keefer is ranked first in the field in birdie-or-better percentage and eighth in bogey avoidance. One of the best putters in the field, this rookie is going to contend early and often this season.
Noonan: Matt McCarty (60-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — Matt McCarty comes to Waialae with three top 14 finishes in his past three starts. His putter can get hot, and that’s how you can separate from the field at this event. Per Betsperts Golf, McCarty has gained one or more strokes putting in 37 percent of his rounds, comfortably ahead of the tour average, which is around 27.5 percent over the past 18 months. The gap stretches as you go further down the line, with McCarty gaining 3+ strokes in 7.9 percent of his rounds, more than double that of an average tour pro (3.4 percent).
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Ryan Gerard (60-1, BetMGM) — I love the fact that Gerard traveled all the way to Mauritius, finished T-2 and locked up his Masters invite. That takes all the pressure off for the early part of 2026. He played a ton since the FedEx Cup playoffs, more than most players, so he has the competitive reps and should be firing on all cylinders at the jump of 2026.
Powers, Golf Digest: Tom Hoge (200-1, BetMGM) — Longshots have fared well here in the recent past at Sony. So I don’t feel too silly taking this deep of a bomb in Week 1, especially since it’s Hoge, a PGA Tour winner whose game fits this course well, as he has a pair of top-12 finishes at Waialae in his career.
Lack: Ryan Gerard (60-1, BetMGM) — Ryan Gerard really piqued my attention last year due to some excellent driving, and he finished the year with a runner-up finish on the DP World Tour. While the putter is also a concern, Waialae does not boast overly challenging greens, and the added wind this year should further accentuate Gerard’s precision.
Sony Open picks 2026: Players We’re Fading
Tour coach: Si Woo Kim (18-1, BetRivers) — Lots of LIV talk surrounding Si Woo in the offseason. Yes, he had a strong end of the year, but he only had three top 10s on tour. It’s a good time to fade him in my opinion. All it takes is a little distraction in this game to knock you off your game, and with all the LIV talk this week, I can see him fading.
Mayo: Russell Henley (11-1, BetMGM) — I actually love Henley this week. Just not at these odds in what can amount to a putting contest.
Stewart: Collin Morikawa (22-1, BetMGM) — 2026 will feature a solid bounce-back campaign for Collin Morikawa. Unfortunately, it will not begin at the Sony. The par 70 scorecard will be a challenge as Collin must take better advantage of the par 4s. A large part of Morikawa’s birdie-or-better percentage struggles stems from the putter. An inconsistent flat stick and a strong left-to-right bias off the tee are not a great fit for the first event of the season.
Noonan: Jordan Spieth (33-1, BetRivers) — It’s great to have Jordan Spieth back and healthy, but I’m not interested in backing him with hard-earned USD in any way, shape, or form. Speaking of form, I don’t know that we should expect much of it from Spieth. He did debut at last month’s Hero World Challenge, but he finished in a tie for last at even par, 22 shots behind tournament winner Hideki Matsuyama.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Robert MacIntyre (20-1, FanDuel) — Just like Ron Klos pointed out in his Sony Open DFS column this week, MacIntyre’s numbers on shorter, positional tracks are not great. I’d much rather bet on any of the other favorites in this field than the Scot.
Powers, Golf Digest: Collin Morikawa (22-1, BetMGM) — Fading Collin became a weekly tradition last season because he simply wasn’t playing consistently well yet was consistently among the favorites. I expect him to rebound in 2026, but I need to see it first before jumping back in at odds like this.
Lack: Harry Hall (33-1, BetRivers) — Harry Hall remains one of the absolute best putters on the PGA Tour, but somewhat windy conditions at Waialae this year should neutralize his greatest strength. Hall is at a significant ball-striking disadvantage compared to the other players in his price range.
Sony Open picks 2026: Matchups
Tour coach: Brian Harman (-120) over Rico Hoey (Bet365) — Harman is amazing with his wedges and short game, a huge advantage over Hoey in this spot. Harman won in San Antonio last year and sneakily finished 13th in the FedEx Cup. I think this course suits him. Not a huge ballpark.
Mayo: Matt McCarty (-115) over Ryan Gerard (Coolbet) — McCarty is accurate off the tee, excels in the key approach range (150-200), and can putt the lights out. While being one of the best ball strikers in the field, Gerard’s lack of short game and putting hold him back in an event like this.
Stewart: Robert MacIntyre (-105) over Si Woo Kim (BetMGM) — Robert MacIntyre is now ranked seventh in the OWGR. Total driving alongside a steady putter, Bobby’s Mac’s contending characteristics fit the Sony Open. Did I mention MacIntyre finished his post Ryder Cup fall with a win and three straight top 12 results? Si Woo Kim is a past champion at Waialae and finished fourth in 2016. Outside of those two starts, his results are mediocre at best. Kim had a solid fall, but Si Woo has been distracted this offseason. I think the Scottish Lefty takes him.
Noonan: Daniel Berger (-120) over Chris Gotterup (Bet365) — Waialae requires and tests a particular set of skills, and Daniel Berger and Chris Gotterup couldn’t be more different, stylistically. Berger is a short-course, Bermuda grass specialist, while Gotterup can separate with his length off the tee. With Gotterup’s advantage mitigated a bit here, I like Berger’s chances in this head-to-head.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Collin Morikawa (-125) over Robert MacIntyre (Bet365) — I explained why I’m fading Bobby Mac above, and this should be a great course fit for Morikawa with his accuracy off the tee and his precision with the irons. This is a good opportunity to get some exposure on a top player who we know has ties to Hawaii.
Powers, Golf Digest: Daniel Berger (-120) over Chris Gotterup (Bet365) — Ryan pretty muched nailed this handicap already in his expert picks debut. Berger is a veteran of the Sony Open game and is poised to fully return to form in 2026. Gotterup has certainly arrived but missed the cut in his only appearance at Waialae. I’ll lean on the experience here.
Lack: Corey Conners (-130) over Aaron Rai (BetOnline) — In this battle between two of the most accurate drivers on the PGA Tour, I give a significant edge to Conners based on the way he finished the season and his prior performance at Waialae. Rai has still yet to figure out the Seth Raynor design, with zero top 25 appearances in three starts.
Matchup Results from the RSM Classic: Hennessey: 1 for 1 (S.W. Kim (+100) over English); Mayo: 1 for 1 (Kuchar (-110) over Cauley); Lack: 1 for 1 (S.W. Kim (+100) over English); Stewart: 1 for 1 (Kuchar (-110) over Cauley); Tour coach: 0 for 1; Powers: 0 for 1
FINAL Matchup Results from the 2025 season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Tour coach: 18-16-4 (up 2.32 units); Hennessey: 22-18-1 (up 1.69 units); Mayo: 18-20-2 (up 0.23 units); Lack: 19-19-1 (down 1.51 units); Powers: 19-20-2 (down 2 units); Stewart: 19-21-1 (down 3.06 units)
Sony Open picks 2026: Top 10s
Tour coach: Chris Kirk (+450, Caesars Sportsbook) — I love these odds on Kirk, who plays well at the Sony with a third-place finish recently, and has a good history in Hawaii in general with his win at Kapalua. I love these odds.
Mayo: Chris Kirk (+450, Caesars Sportsbook) — Kirk draws it perfectly for this course. Couple that with his excellent form to end the Swing Season and his impeccable course history and we’ve got a lurker on our hands.
Stewart: Harry Hall (+410, FanDuel) — The best putter on the planet? Harry Hall made a serious playoff (and Ryder Cup) run to end the 2025 season. Hall was a machine on the greens last year and looks to continue his contending ways on these Bermudagrass surfaces. A T-10 last year at Waialae, I look to have Harry finish at least one place better…
Noonan: Keegan Bradley (+275, BetRivers) — We saw a lot of really good golf from Keegan Bradley in 2025, and I’m not just talking about the Skins Game, Golf Channel Games, and TGL. Considering how Keegan wore the Ryder Cup captaincy like a 50-pound anchor at times, it’s impressive to consider Bradley’s 11 top-20 finishes in 2025 were the most he’s had in any of the past 12 seasons. If you were looking for his golf game to take a back seat, you were mistaken. Bradley’s thrilling takedown of the Travelers was one of many examples where he played well against a strong field on a layout that demands elite ball-striking traits. He’s been in contention on Sunday at Waialae in three of the past four years.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Nick Taylor (+450, BetRivers) — It’s a tough week when you’re a defending champ, but Waialae must be as chill of a spot to do it. Taylor’s record at Waialae is very strong with a win, T-7, T-7 and a T-11 in his last four starts here.
Powers, Golf Digest: Harry Hall (+410, FanDuel) — Very high on ARRY ALL (British pronunciation) in the 2026 season. Made a legitimate Ryder Cup push toward the end of last year, and I would not be surprised to see him win multiple times on tour this year.
Lack: Daniel Berger (+600, FanDuel) — Daniel Berger did close the season quietly, but he has a ton of great history on Waialae and many similar courses, including victories at Colonial and Pebble Beach. Berger fits the ideal profile of Bermuda specialist, great middle iron, and supremely accurate driver of the ball.
Top-10 results from the RSM Classic: Lack: 1 for 1 (Nico Echavarria +500); Everybody else: 0 for 1
FINAL Top-10 results from the 2025 season: Mayo: 10 for 41 (up 14.27 units); Tour coach: 9 for 38 (up 11.8 units); Lack: 12 for 40 (up 16.6 units); Stewart: 13 for 41 (up 8.65 units); Hennessey: 8 for 40 (up 2.9 units); Powers: 2 for 41 (down 29.5 units)
About our experts
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor for Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith's winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. Andy is the founder and CEO of Inside Sports Network, a website devoted to the predictive quality of advanced analytics and golf course architecture. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for Run Pure Sports, RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports.
Ryan Noonan is the Betting Content Manager for 4for4 and Betsperts Golf, writing articles and hosting multiple shows under the Betsperts Group umbrella, including Move The Line and our Betsperts Golf Betting Show. Find him on Twitter: @RyNoonan.