Sony Open DFS picks 2026: The disrespect for this new PGA Tour star continues

With The Sentry absent from the 2026 schedule, the Sony Open at the venerable Waialae Country Club in Honolulu stands as the first official tournament of the PGA Tour season. Having rewarded shot-makers for more than six decades, this Seth Raynor design boasts a roll of champions that includes Jack Nicklaus, Tom Watson, Lee Trevino and Ben Crenshaw.

Waialae is a classic par-70 layout that is distinguished by its narrow corridors, sharp doglegs, unpredictable Bermuda rough and firm greens. It is a positional track that has effectively neutralized any advantages held by bombers off the tee. With the potential for trade winds to swirl, this week is about strategy, position and accuracy on a tight-and-flat course.

While not a complete birdie-fest, the average winning score over the past five tournaments has been 19-under, ranking as the ninth-easiest annual course on the PGA Tour. It’s a course where quality shots can lead to birdies on almost every hole. But if you are in the rough or out of position, scrambling for par can be a challenge. It is also the fifth-most predictive course on the schedule. Those who have a successful track record at Waialae tend to contend here on a yearly basis.

This year’s Sony Open will feature a relatively strong field of 120 players, with seven of the top 17 and 26 of the top 60 players in the Official World Golf Ranking in attendance. Headliners include Russell Henley, Ben Griffin, J.J. Spaun, Robert MacIntyre, Keegan Bradley, Collin Morikawa, Hideki Matsuyama and Jordan Spieth.

$9,000+ range

Play: Ben Griffin, $10,100

A look at Griffin’s profile in the Rabbit Hole at BetspertsGolf.com reveals a skill set tailor-made for Waialae. On a course that prioritizes precise iron play and proficiency on Bermuda greens, his recent and long-term Strokes Gained trends in both approach and putting are excellent. While Griffin rates slightly below average off the tee, Waialae’s positional, target-golf design largely neutralizes that weakness.

After bursting onto the scene last season, Griffin has emerged as a model of both upside and consistency across a variety of course types. He arrives in Hawaii riding a streak of six consecutive PGA Tour finishes of T-12 or better, highlighted by a victory in Mexico in November.

Fade: Robert MacIntyre, $9,600

With Waialae ranking as the ninth-shortest and the fifth-most predictive course on the PGA Tour, it’s no surprise that the same archetype—elite short-to-mid iron players with accuracy off the tee and a reliable short game—tends to contend here year after year. Using the Rabbit Hole’s Finish Position view with the course-length filter set to “short,” MacIntyre’s record over the past two seasons stands out for the wrong reasons.

Across 13 starts on comparable courses, he has managed just three top-30 finishes, posting an average finishing position of 52, by far the weakest profile in this price range. Compounding the issue, MacIntyre ranks just 61st in the field from the critical 150- to 200-yard approach range over the past six months, a key scoring window at Waialae.

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$8,000+ range

Play: Brian Harman, $8,000

Harman checks multiple boxes this week. From a course-history standpoint, he has gained the fifth-most total strokes at Waialae since 2016, averaging 0.84 strokes gained per round. On a layout with 3.5-inch Bermuda rough designed to punish wayward drives, he stands out as one of the tour’s most accurate players off the tee, ranking 13th best in the field in “Distance From Edge of the Fairway” on comparable courses that have a below-average Fairways Hit rate.

He further reinforces the case by ranking second in this field over the past three years on short courses, gaining an impressive 1.05 total strokes per round.

Fade: Adam Scott, $8,400

With just one top-15 finish in PGA Tour events over the past year, the 45-year-old Scott is showing clear signs of decline. The lack of upside is increasingly evident, as he has recorded only five top-five finishes since 2023. Once a strength, Scott’s putting has become a liability— over his past 36 rounds he has lost an average of 0.18 strokes per round with the flat stick. That trend is particularly concerning at Waialae, where top-10 finishers have gained an average of 1.06 strokes putting per round since 2021.

$7,000+ range

Play: Eric Cole, $7,700

One of the additions to the Rabbit Hole’s course pages this year is a “Player Quotes” section. When asked at last year’s Sony Open whether Waialae fits his eye, Cole didn’t hesitate. “It does. I feel comfortable off the tees and the greens are Bermuda, which I’m used to putting on. So I definitely feel good here. It’s got a lot of similarities to courses I grew up playing in Florida.” That comfort has translated to results: Cole finished 13th here in 2024 and followed it up with a fifth-place showing last season.

While Cole endured some inconsistency in 2025, Waialae plays directly to his strengths. His elite iron play and proven putting on Bermuda are emphasized, while the course’s positional nature helps mask his shortcomings off the tee.

Play: Matt McCarty, $7,500

One of the PGA Tour’s more underrated emerging talents, Matt McCarty built on his 2024 Bank of Utah Championship victory with steady progression, closing 2025 with four top-15 finishes in his final five starts. He isn’t just one of the Tour’s most consistent putters; McCarty is also among the rare players gaining shots in all four Strokes Gained categories over his last 75 rounds.

$6,000+ range

Play: Mark Hubbard, $6,800

When scouting golfers in the $6K range, I focus on three key factors: positive course history, top-10 upside even amid recent struggles and statistical standouts revealed through a Rabbit Hole search combining multiple course filters. With Waialae ranking as the 10th easiest course on the PGA Tour over the past five years, I applied the “easy scoring” filter alongside performance on Bermuda greens. Under these criteria, Mark Hubbard stands out, having gained the ninth-most strokes in the field since 2024, including three top-10 finishes, making him a reliable option to round out lineups.